Fickle Fay keeps county on alert

OCALA - Marion County emergency officials said Tuesday that the area may have dodged a bullet when it comes to Tropical Storm Fay but now they fear she could have another bullet in the chamber.

About 80 men and women, representing numerous agencies throughout the county, gather Tuesday afternoon at the Marion County Sheriff’s Office headquarters to talk about the latest on Fay. It was now expected to enter the Atlantic Ocean near Daytona, possibly restrengthen and head back into north Florida.

As of 2 p.m., they expected a second landfall somewhere in Duval, St. Johns or Flagler counties early Friday morning. Marion sheriff’s Capt. Chip Wildy said that Fay will be around for a while. Until the storm has dissipated, Wildy said he will not rest at ease.

‘‘We just talked to the National Hurricane Center," he told a group who gathered for the storm briefing. ‘‘This may shock you, but basically they still have no idea what this thing will do.’’

For now, all agencies will remain on standby while fickle Fay slowly moves across the state and back into the Atlantic. If any more planning meeting are needed, Wildy will call everyone back to the command center to talk about the threat.

All agencies said they were ready and waiting.

Fay continued to meander northeast across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday, traveling further south than once predicted and keeping Marion County out of its direct path.

Local emergency management officials say eastern Marion County could see some wind gusts above 30 mph and up to 3 inches of rain Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. It was good news for officials who, as of late Monday, thought the county would receive a direct hit.

Fay was a tropical storm when it made landfall near Naples early Tuesday.

Because of the threat of tropical storm-force wind gusts in eastern Marion County overnight, and the tornado threat while Fay’s passes, Marion County Public Schools would remain closed on Wednesday.

Superintendent of Schools Jim Yancey said Tuesday that students will make up the days on Wednesday, Nov. 26, the day before Thanksgiving, and Friday, Dec. 19, the day after school had been scheduled to end for Christmas break.

Marion sheriff’s Capt. Chip Wildy said Marion County dodged a bullet – or something more like a rock from a slingshot. While officials would continue to monitor the storm, no further mobilization of emergency resources was expected.

Wildy called the threat a good ‘‘dry run’’ and it brought the hurricane season back to the forefront, emphasizing the fact residents need to be prepared at all times and remain vigilant until the season ends on Nov. 30.

He urges residents to always remember that until Fay finally dissipates it is not over. And even if Fay doesn’t greatly impact Marion County, the next storm could.

He urged residents always to be prepared, even though Fay may have cried wolf, so to speak.

So far, the county incurred very little cost because of the storm.

What has made Fay so difficult to predict is the ever-changing upper-level steering patterns, or wind directions far above the ground that help steer storms. That upper level wind sometimes keeps storms from intensifying as well, shearing the top of the storm as it tries to strengthen.

The end result of her inconsistent path — which caused forecasters and computer models to repeatedly change landfall positions — was uncertainty for Florida’s 18 million residents. It made everyone in the state act like squirrels in the middle of the roadway, unsure which way to run.

Meteorologist Phil Peterson of the National Weather Service in Jacksonville said upper level steering currents and an emerging high pressure system to the north have made predicting Fay very difficult.

Fay has been one of the most unpredictable storms in years.

Peterson said Fay is expected to re-emerge in the Atlantic and then make a hook back into land at the Florida/Georgia border north of Fernandina Beach. However, it all depends on how fast a high develops.

Currently upper level winds are steering Fay eastward. But with the high, which has counterclockwise winds that move westward, Fay could make a straight line back across north Florida, he said.

Peterson noted that Fay’s intensification will all depend how far in the Atlantic it travels before the wind spinning off the high pressure sends it back to the coast. It could reorganize and strengthen if Fay goes far enough out and over the warmer Gulf Stream.

"All depends on the timing of these factors," he said.

Joe Callahan can be reached at joe.callahan@starbanner.com or 352-867-4113.